Weather Conditions

December-17 to January-18

Forecasts of warmer conditions for end of Q1-18 saw winter risk premium erode.

Beast of the East

February-18 to May-18

Beast from the East Part 1,2 & 3 hits UK. First gas day deficit warning in 8 years. Within-day prices at 20 year high (350p/therm). Uncertainty over temperatures market driven by short term fundamentals. Oil rose to $90 p/barrel & Winter power prices rose to £76 MWh.

DCP 161

April-18

Introduced by Ofgem, DCP 161 came into force on 1st April 2018 to ensure that any half-hourly (HH) metered sites are billed fairly and correctly in respect of their Agreed Supply Capacity (ASC). Each HH meter across the UK has an ASC, which is measured in kVA and forms part of the site’s Connection Agreement with the local distribution network (DNO). The ASC is charged at a rate which has been agreed within the supply contract and is affected by both voltage level and area. The penalty charge for exceeding your available capacity will increase on average, by an estimated 81%. This charge will vary significantly from region to region.

Low Norwegian flows, gas storage and oil

August-18 to November-18

Low Norwegian flows has been cut due to supply issues; this has caused a shortage in gas storage. Due to the affects from the beast of the east, gas storage has been below seasonal average. Oil has rallied to $87 p/barrel.

Oil Crash

November-18 to January-19

Oil crashed from $86 p/barrel to $49 p/barrel

£

High Commodities

May-18 to November-18

Commodities (oil, carbon and coal) dominate direction of gas and power markets.