Day-ahead Prices Reach Pre-war Levels

Market Summary


October 2022


Gas prices have plunged by almost half this month because of the unusually warm weather across Europe delaying the usual jump in heating demand. The ongoing high import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is helping to top up storage levels which have also contributed to demand and prices easing.


The UK experienced high levels of wind throughout the month which contributed to as much as 44% of the electricity generated at times.


These factors have impacted electricity and gas day-ahead prices which have reached lows not seen since before the Ukraine and Russia war, now trading at 13.69 and 4.36 p/kWh respectively.


The newly appointed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has done a budgetary U-turn this week and confirmed that the government’s scheme to cap energy prices for two years will now only be up to April next year.


Energy supplier EDF announced that it's looking to extend operations of several key nuclear reactors within the UK which could result in a 6% price reduction along the curve right through to 2029 if it were to occur. This would impact the whole UK commodity market which would be good news for everyone.



Electricity and Gas Prices

Electricity Prices - October 2022

Overall, prices have come down since the beginning of October which is encouraging, with forward periods trading at nearly half the price.















Gas Prices - October 2022

Unfortunately, electricity prices are trading above £700 MWh for December and January which still poses a risk, with winter prices remaining high even with the discounts we’ve seen.











Gas & Electricity - 1st to 26th October 2022 Prices

Flexible Purchasing


EPEX Price

Our flexible purchasing customers are buying on EPEX, a European auction for power. Because they auction every hour of each day, customers get the “market average” price as opposed to a fixed-term contract over eg 12 months. Being on this product means that you will pay the average of each day for the month and once the market falls the price will follow.


The EPEX price currently is 13.51 p/kWh (commodity). With the non-commodity added to this, the overall rate will be 26 p/kWh+.


Heren Price

The gas price is currently at 4.72 p/kWh for October’s delivery. The overall contract price will be 5.2 p/kWh+.



Carbon Prices

Carbon prices have been fairly stable throughout October with prices hovering around the high € 60s.


The last couple of days have been bullish after the government’s reshuffle this week, pushing prices up by 21% from €66 to €81 per tonne.






Oil Market

Oil prices had steadied then fell last week amid fears of an economic slowdown lowering crude demand.


OPEC+ which is led by Saudi Arabia now plan to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day starting in November which will significantly push up winter prices. This follows intense lobbying by the Biden administration and is set to cause a political fallout if it goes ahead.



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